With only 26 days left before
Scotland goes to vote in an independence referendum, the populace has mixed
feelings on whether to vote for independence or to remain part of the United
Kingdom (UK). According to the UK Polling Report published on the 18th
of August 2014, 43% are saying YES to independence while 57% are saying NO.
However there still are a significant number of voters who remain undecided and
a question to be asked is; Is this a safe position for Scotland this late
towards the elections? This is in no doubt the biggest decision in Scotland’s
history.
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| Scotland First Minister, Alex Salmond (Source: www.scotland.gov.uk) |
Scotland First Minister Alex
Salmond is leading the Yes Campaign adamant that Scotland is more than ready
for a divorce from the 307 year-old seemingly ‘defunct’ marriage to
Westminster, which he says has strolled and trod on Scot’s economic, social and
political progress.
“It is my absolute conviction
that Scotland’s future should be in Scotland’s hands,” he says. “The vote in
September is about becoming independent from the parliamentary union of 1707
and passing to the Scottish Parliament the powers Westminster has over matters
such as taxation, welfare and the economy, and securing for Scotland our own
place in the world as an independent country.”
Salmond’s camp has occasionally
described Labour Member of Parliament Alistair Darling’s ‘Better Together’ campaign 'scaremongers' who trade on
spurious scare stories in-order to instil fear in the voters so that they
desist from voting for independence.
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Scottish Labour Party Member of Parliament, Alistair Darling
(Source: http://www.agenciabrasil.gov.br/media/imagens/2006/09/05/2150AC062.jpg/view) |
Darling’s No camp labels the Yes campaign
and strategy as a big gamble that can’t be relied on. The following are the
arguments being put forward by the two opposing parties and a real bone of
contention and sticking point for the undecided voters is that of the currency
to be used by an independent Scotland.
Currency
Salmond maintains that no one has
the right to deny Scotland the use of the Pound-Sterling because it’s their
currency as well as it is that of the rest of the UK. In a debate some weeks
ago, Salmond refused to spell out Plan B on which currency to use if
Westminster refuses with the Pound-Sterling. Darling played this to his
advantage saying Salmond has no clear strategy in line with currency which is
detrimental to the success of the Yes campaign because this is a crucial aspect
for everyone in Scotland including the business sector.
Oil and
Gas
According to the Yes campaign,
Scotland can invest its oil wealth for future generations. The campaign
believes there is estimated to be as much North Sea oil still to come as has
already been extracted. Scottish waters consist of a large sector of the North
Altantic and the North Sea, containing the largest oil reserves in the European
Union. This has given Aberdeen the 3rd largest city in Scotland the
title of Europe’s oil capital.
Scotland’s Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) including oil and gas produced in Scottish waters was estimated at £150
billion for the calendar year 2012. Hence, credible sources say if Scotland
became independent it would hold 95% of the UK’s current oil and gas reserves
if they were split geographically using a median line from the English-Scottish
border. If the reserves were split by population, that figure would be reduced
to 9%.
The NO campaign disputes the Scottish National Party claims about the
value of oil and gas in Scottish waters. They say Scotland has run a deficit in
20 of the last 21 years – in other words every penny has been spent on public
services like schools, hospitals and pensions. The No campaign also believes
that as part of the bigger UK economy, Scotland is protected from the oil and
gas price fluctuations.
Economy
Salmond envisions an independent Scotland
with a strong and diverse economy with high performing sectors including
manufacturing, food and drink, tourism, energy and high potential growth areas
in life sciences and biotechnology. Darling says size matters and being a part
of the UK means Scotland has a bigger customer base. The ‘Better Together’
campaign quotes a report published by the Independent Institute for Fiscal
Studies which suggests that an independent Scotland would face a gap between
tax income and spending more than twice as large as the rest of the UK.
Healthcare
The Yes campaign intends to keep
the National Health Services (NHS) in public hands and maintain an NHS that is
free at the point of use and need – as opposed to its privatisation which is
being proposed by Westminster.
According to Darling, the strength, stability
and security of the UK economy safeguards the NHS for generations to come. He
goes on to say independent Scotland can’t afford good health care because if it
gets independent it would face between £3billion and £10billion of cuts or
increases. A separate health border from the UK would mean that some treatments
too specialised would not be cost-effective in a country of 5million. As part
of the UK, Scots have access to dozens of treatments that are unavailable in
Scotland with no hustle and no charge. On the other hand Salmond says an
independent Scotland doesn’t mean ending current cross-border arrangements with
health services in the rest of the UK, which have continued even though the NHS
in Scotland already operates independently. This sounds like an 'independence with
benefits’. The question is, Is this practical?
Pensions
Salmond promises to protect pensioners’
incomes with the triple lock so that pensions increase by inflation, earnings
or 2.5%, whichever is highest. In an independent Scotland, the parliament would
have the flexibility to alter the pensionable age while still offering people
the security of knowing that their pension will be paid on time and in full.
According to Darling, the best way of ensuring Scotland’s pensioners are
supported is by spreading those increasing costs across 60million people across
the UK – not just 5million in Scotland.
Defence
The Yes camp say independent
Scotland will set up a separate Scottish Defence Force and Scottish
Intelligence Services. They also intend to remove nuclear weapons from Scotland
and this would be with a view to the removal of Trident (an operation system of
four Vanguard-class submarines armed with Trident II D-S ballistic missiles,
able to deliver thermonuclear warheads from multiple independent re-entry
vehicles. It is the most expensive and most powerful capability of the British
military forces. At least one submarine is always on patrol to provide a
continuous at sea deterrent).
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A Trident Missile armed Vanguard class ballistic missile submarine
(Source: 222.naval-technology.com) |
The No camp snubs off SNP’s
proposed defence strategy describing it as fantasy. It quotes Former Black
Watch Commander Lieutenant General Sir Alistair Irwin who said, “to spend money
in Scotland replicating all the existing UK-wide policy, administrative and
practical functions that are needed to sustain a defence force seem profligate,
to say the least of it...there is, i think, little doubt that the nation and
its interests...would not only be less well protected than they are now but
more to the point, would actually be inadequately protected.” Separation will
only compromise Scottish security. Darling also argues that some 12 000 people
working in Scotland’s defence sector face the risk of losing their jobs because
some of them work for defence contractors on UK contracts.
The Case of the European Union (EU)
An independent Scotland intends
to be a part of the EU so says the Yes campaign, but the process involved in
joining is not as easy. Scotland would have to go through the process of
applying to enter the EU like any other new country and one of the requirements
is that the country should pledge to join the Euro currency, something that the
SNP is not in favour of.
Education
Proportionally Scotland has more
universities in QS’ World University Rankings’ top 100 than any other nation in
the world, and in 2014 research reported by the office for National Statistics
found that Scotland was the most highly educated country in Europe and among
the most well-educated in the world in terms of tertiary education attainment,
with roughly 40% of people in Scotland aged 16-64 educated to NVQ Level 4 and
above. This is a heritage that the Yes campaign seeks to maintain through
independence. The campaign says independence will allow Scotland to protect the
principle of free education and free access to higher education. It also
promises Scotland will pay its way within the common research area and
contribute to arrangements for research funding through the existing Research
Councils.
According to ‘Better Together’,
this thriving tertiary education is as a result of Scotland being part of the
UK and not a solo success. Darling goes on to say Scottish universities are
backed by a disproportionate share of UK Research Council and UK Charity
Funding and the unity offers greater opportunities for Scottish students and
researchers. ‘Better Together’ questions the legality of SNP’s white paper
proposal to exclusively charge English and Welsh students tuition fees in the
event of independence and joining of the EU.
Welfare
Upon independence, SNP plans to
abolish the ‘bedroom tax’ within the first year. It also intends to halt the
further roll out of Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payments in
Scotland. It also promises to ensure that benefits and tax credits increase at
least in line with inflation to avoid the poorest families falling further into
poverty. ‘Better Together’ believes that pooling and sharing of resources
across the UK makes higher benefit spending in Scotland more affordable as
opposed to Scotland going it alone.
In the event that Scotland votes
for independence on the 18th of September, Scotland would become an
independent country 24 March 2016 as proposed by Salmond. Are Salmond's proposals practical and implementable? There is a high degree of supposition and uncertainty in his quest for independence. Yes, it takes time for a country that has just gained independence to stand on its own two feet, but it seems Salmond's policies are based too much on continued operational ties with the rest of the UK- as if Scotland will only relate with the UK when it benefits the Scots. If that be the case, is Westminster going to agree to be taken advantage of?
On the other hand Salmond believes in the rich and vibrant Scottish economy and its viability in the rest of the UK, Europe & the world.
