Scottish Independence - Is it a 'Divorce with Benefits'?

With only 26 days left before Scotland goes to vote in an independence referendum, the populace has mixed feelings on whether to vote for independence or to remain part of the United Kingdom (UK). According to the UK Polling Report published on the 18^th of August 2014, 43% are saying YES to independence while 57% are saying NO. However there still are a significant number of voters who remain undecided and a question to be asked is; Is this a safe position for Scotland this late towards the elections? This is in no doubt the biggest decision in Scotland’s history.

Scotland First Minister, Alex Salmond (Source: www.scotland.gov.uk)

Scotland First Minister Alex Salmond is leading the Yes Campaign adamant that Scotland is more than ready for a divorce from the 307 year-old seemingly ‘defunct’ marriage to Westminster, which he says has strolled and trod on Scot’s economic, social and political progress.

“It is my absolute conviction that Scotland’s future should be in Scotland’s hands,” he says. “The vote in September is about becoming independent from the parliamentary union of 1707 and passing to the Scottish Parliament the powers Westminster has over matters such as taxation, welfare and the economy, and securing for Scotland our own place in the world as an independent country.”

Salmond’s camp has occasionally described Labour Member of Parliament Alistair Darling’s ‘Better Together’ campaign 'scaremongers' who trade on spurious scare stories in-order to instil fear in the voters so that they desist from voting for independence. 

Scottish Labour Party Member of Parliament, Alistair Darling
(Source: http://www.agenciabrasil.gov.br/media/imagens/2006/09/05/2150AC062.jpg/view)

Darling’s No camp labels the Yes campaign and strategy as a big gamble that can’t be relied on. The following are the arguments being put forward by the two opposing parties and a real bone of contention and sticking point for the undecided voters is that of the currency to be used by an independent Scotland.

Currency

Salmond maintains that no one has the right to deny Scotland the use of the Pound-Sterling because it’s their currency as well as it is that of the rest of the UK. In a debate some weeks ago, Salmond refused to spell out Plan B on which currency to use if Westminster refuses with the Pound-Sterling. Darling played this to his advantage saying Salmond has no clear strategy in line with currency which is detrimental to the success of the Yes campaign because this is a crucial aspect for everyone in Scotland including the business sector.

 Oil and Gas

According to the Yes campaign, Scotland can invest its oil wealth for future generations. The campaign believes there is estimated to be as much North Sea oil still to come as has already been extracted. Scottish waters consist of a large sector of the North Altantic and the North Sea, containing the largest oil reserves in the European Union. This has given Aberdeen the 3^rd largest city in Scotland the title of Europe’s oil capital.

Scotland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) including oil and gas produced in Scottish waters was estimated at £150 billion for the calendar year 2012. Hence, credible sources say if Scotland became independent it would hold 95% of the UK’s current oil and gas reserves if they were split geographically using a median line from the English-Scottish border. If the reserves were split by population, that figure would be reduced to 9%.

The NO campaign disputes the Scottish National Party claims about the value of oil and gas in Scottish waters. They say Scotland has run a deficit in 20 of the last 21 years – in other words every penny has been spent on public services like schools, hospitals and pensions. The No campaign also believes that as part of the bigger UK economy, Scotland is protected from the oil and gas price fluctuations.

Economy

Salmond envisions an independent Scotland with a strong and diverse economy with high performing sectors including manufacturing, food and drink, tourism, energy and high potential growth areas in life sciences and biotechnology. Darling says size matters and being a part of the UK means Scotland has a bigger customer base. The ‘Better Together’ campaign quotes a report published by the Independent Institute for Fiscal Studies which suggests that an independent Scotland would face a gap between tax income and spending more than twice as large as the rest of the UK.

Healthcare

The Yes campaign intends to keep the National Health Services (NHS) in public hands and maintain an NHS that is free at the point of use and need – as opposed to its privatisation which is being proposed by Westminster. 

According to Darling, the strength, stability and security of the UK economy safeguards the NHS for generations to come. He goes on to say independent Scotland can’t afford good health care because if it gets independent it would face between £3billion and £10billion of cuts or increases. A separate health border from the UK would mean that some treatments too specialised would not be cost-effective in a country of 5million. As part of the UK, Scots have access to dozens of treatments that are unavailable in Scotland with no hustle and no charge. On the other hand Salmond says an independent Scotland doesn’t mean ending current cross-border arrangements with health services in the rest of the UK, which have continued even though the NHS in Scotland already operates independently. This sounds like an 'independence with benefits’. The question is, Is this practical?

Pensions

Salmond promises to protect pensioners’ incomes with the triple lock so that pensions increase by inflation, earnings or 2.5%, whichever is highest. In an independent Scotland, the parliament would have the flexibility to alter the pensionable age while still offering people the security of knowing that their pension will be paid on time and in full. According to Darling, the best way of ensuring Scotland’s pensioners are supported is by spreading those increasing costs across 60million people across the UK – not just 5million in Scotland.

Defence

The Yes camp say independent Scotland will set up a separate Scottish Defence Force and Scottish Intelligence Services. They also intend to remove nuclear weapons from Scotland and this would be with a view to the removal of Trident (an operation system of four Vanguard-class submarines armed with Trident II D-S ballistic missiles, able to deliver thermonuclear warheads from multiple independent re-entry vehicles. It is the most expensive and most powerful capability of the British military forces. At least one submarine is always on patrol to provide a continuous at sea deterrent).

A Trident Missile armed Vanguard class ballistic missile submarine
(Source: 222.naval-technology.com)

The No camp snubs off SNP’s proposed defence strategy describing it as fantasy. It quotes Former Black Watch Commander Lieutenant General Sir Alistair Irwin who said, “to spend money in Scotland replicating all the existing UK-wide policy, administrative and practical functions that are needed to sustain a defence force seem profligate, to say the least of it...there is, i think, little doubt that the nation and its interests...would not only be less well protected than they are now but more to the point, would actually be inadequately protected.” Separation will only compromise Scottish security. Darling also argues that some 12 000 people working in Scotland’s defence sector face the risk of losing their jobs because some of them work for defence contractors on UK contracts.

The Case of the European Union (EU)

An independent Scotland intends to be a part of the EU so says the Yes campaign, but the process involved in joining is not as easy. Scotland would have to go through the process of applying to enter the EU like any other new country and one of the requirements is that the country should pledge to join the Euro currency, something that the SNP is not in favour of.

Education

Proportionally Scotland has more universities in QS’ World University Rankings’ top 100 than any other nation in the world, and in 2014 research reported by the office for National Statistics found that Scotland was the most highly educated country in Europe and among the most well-educated in the world in terms of tertiary education attainment, with roughly 40% of people in Scotland aged 16-64 educated to NVQ Level 4 and above. This is a heritage that the Yes campaign seeks to maintain through independence. The campaign says independence will allow Scotland to protect the principle of free education and free access to higher education. It also promises Scotland will pay its way within the common research area and contribute to arrangements for research funding through the existing Research Councils.

According to ‘Better Together’, this thriving tertiary education is as a result of Scotland being part of the UK and not a solo success. Darling goes on to say Scottish universities are backed by a disproportionate share of UK Research Council and UK Charity Funding and the unity offers greater opportunities for Scottish students and researchers. ‘Better Together’ questions the legality of SNP’s white paper proposal to exclusively charge English and Welsh students tuition fees in the event of independence and joining of the EU.

Welfare

Upon independence, SNP plans to abolish the ‘bedroom tax’ within the first year. It also intends to halt the further roll out of Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payments in Scotland. It also promises to ensure that benefits and tax credits increase at least in line with inflation to avoid the poorest families falling further into poverty. ‘Better Together’ believes that pooling and sharing of resources across the UK makes higher benefit spending in Scotland more affordable as opposed to Scotland going it alone.

In the event that Scotland votes for independence on the 18^th of September, Scotland would become an independent country 24 March 2016 as proposed by Salmond. Are Salmond's proposals practical and implementable? There is a high degree of supposition and uncertainty in his quest for independence. Yes, it takes time for a country that has just gained independence to stand on its own two feet, but it seems Salmond's policies are based too much on continued operational ties with the rest of the UK- as if Scotland will only relate with the UK when it benefits the Scots. If that be the case, is Westminster going to agree to be taken advantage of? 

On the other hand Salmond believes in the rich and vibrant Scottish economy and its viability in the rest of the UK, Europe & the world.